13:00 ET, Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte FC vs Orlando City SC
Charlotte FC47%43-51
Draw27%24-30
Orlando City SC27%24-30
Slight lean: Charlotte FC
Forecasts
This weekend in MLS and Liga MX: win, draw and loss for every match.
Fifteen MLS regular-season matches and six Liga MX Apertura matches, 31 October to 1 November 2026. Each forecast was recorded before kick-off and goes straight into our public track record, where it is scored after the final whistle.
Home winDrawAway win90% range (small numbers)
MLS
15MLS regular-season matches
480results this season behind the ratings
0.217RPS when tested in date order on 292 earlier matches
0.222RPS of plain base rates on the same matches (lower is better)
Recorded Sat 31 Oct 2026, 01:26 ET, before the first kick-off. Times are US Eastern.
Sat 31 Oct 2026
14:00 ET, ScottsMiracle-Gro Field
Columbus Crew vs D.C. United
Columbus Crew58%51-65
Draw23%20-27
D.C. United19%14-24
Favourite: Columbus Crew
14:00 ET, TQL Stadium
FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union
FC Cincinnati36%31-42
Draw28%25-31
Philadelphia Union36%31-41
No clear favourite
Our pre-game report on this match published a range: see the track record.
14:00 ET, Citi Field
New York City FC vs CF Montréal
New York City FC57%50-63
Draw24%20-27
CF Montréal19%15-24
Favourite: New York City FC
15:00 ET, Sporting Park
Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas
Sporting Kansas City25%18-35
Draw26%22-29
FC Dallas48%38-58
Slight lean: FC Dallas
15:00 ET, Energizer Park
St. Louis CITY SC vs San Diego FC
St. Louis CITY SC57%51-64
Draw24%20-27
San Diego FC19%15-24
Favourite: St. Louis CITY SC
17:00 ET, Dignity Health Sports Park
LA Galaxy vs Austin FC
LA Galaxy51%46-56
Draw26%23-29
Austin FC23%20-27
Favourite: LA Galaxy
17:00 ET, PayPal Park
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
San Jose Earthquakes46%43-50
Draw27%24-30
Real Salt Lake27%24-30
Slight lean: San Jose Earthquakes
21:30 ET, Dick's Sporting Goods Park
Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire FC
Colorado Rapids40%36-45
Draw28%24-31
Chicago Fire FC32%28-37
No clear favourite
Sun 1 Nov 2026
15:30 ET, BC Place
Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders FC
Vancouver Whitecaps55%49-61
Draw24%21-28
Seattle Sounders FC20%16-25
Favourite: Vancouver Whitecaps
16:30 ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC37%32-43
Draw28%25-31
Toronto FC35%30-40
No clear favourite
16:30 ET, GEODIS Park
Nashville SC vs Red Bull New York
Nashville SC68%57-77
Draw19%14-24
Red Bull New York13%8-19
Favourite: Nashville SC
19:00 ET, Gillette Stadium
New England Revolution vs Inter Miami CF
New England Revolution46%42-50
Draw27%24-30
Inter Miami CF27%25-31
Slight lean: New England Revolution
20:30 ET, BMO Stadium
LAFC vs Minnesota United FC
LAFC50%46-54
Draw26%23-29
Minnesota United FC24%21-28
Slight lean: LAFC
21:45 ET, Providence Park
Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo FC
Portland Timbers40%36-45
Draw28%24-31
Houston Dynamo FC32%28-37
No clear favourite
Liga MX
6Liga MX regular-season matches
281results this season behind the ratings
0.229RPS when tested in date order on 164 earlier matches
0.233RPS of plain base rates on the same matches (lower is better)
Liga MX ratings use the 281 league-phase results of the Clausura and Apertura 2026, carried over between the two tournaments with no reset. A team new to the league this year starts from an average rating. Same model and same scoring as MLS.
Recorded Sat 31 Oct 2026, 01:51 ET, before the first kick-off. Times are US Eastern.
Sat 31 Oct 2026
19:00 ET, Estadio Hidalgo
Pachuca vs Tigres UANL
Pachuca45%40-50
Draw26%23-30
Tigres UANL29%24-34
Slight lean: Pachuca
21:05 ET, Estadio BBVA
Monterrey vs Tijuana
Monterrey35%29-40
Draw27%23-31
Tijuana39%33-44
No clear favourite
21:07 ET, Estadio Akron
Guadalajara vs Atlante
Guadalajara58%47-67
Draw23%18-27
Atlante20%13-27
Favourite: Guadalajara
23:10 ET, Estadio Banorte
América vs Toluca
América43%38-48
Draw26%23-31
Toluca31%25-35
Slight lean: América
Sun 1 Nov 2026
18:00 ET, Estadio Corona
Santos vs Necaxa
Santos52%45-60
Draw25%21-29
Necaxa24%17-30
Favourite: Santos
20:10 ET, Estadio Banorte
Cruz Azul vs León
Cruz Azul51%44-58
Draw25%21-29
León24%19-31
Favourite: Cruz Azul
Forecasts
How these numbers are made
Each team has a rating built only from this year's league results (480 MLS matches; 281 Liga MX matches across the Clausura and Apertura), updated after every game, with more weight for wider winning margins and a fixed allowance for playing at home.
The gap between two ratings becomes the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win through a simple statistical model fitted to the same matches (an ordered logistic model), separately for each league.
The small numbers under each percentage are a 90% range: we refitted the model 200 times on resampled matches and kept the middle 90% of the answers. Read the range, not the single number.
The edge is small
Tested in date order on earlier matches, the model scored an RPS of 0.217 against 0.222 for plain base rates (how often home wins, draws and away wins happen) in MLS, on 292 matches, and 0.229 against 0.233 in Liga MX, on 164. In both leagues the gap points the right way, but it is small and not yet statistically clear. In MLS we chose this model because it scored best in that test, so if anything the test flatters it; this weekend is a fresh check.
Ratings know nothing about injuries, suspensions, rotation or travel. A club's own data and video are where a real advantage comes from.
These are public sample forecasts. A partner club's pre-game report adds its own statistics, GPS and video, and is checked by an analyst before the staff sees it.
Want a forecast built on your own data?
Our pre-game reports start from these ratings and add what only your club knows.